Originally appeared in Fleet Owner
While 2027 may seem far away, it really isn’t when you look at planning for your capital expenditures. Speaking at a recent NationaLease meeting, Ken Davis, founder of Greentree Advisors, said that inflation and regulations will impact capital expenditures over the next several years.
After 2027, regulatory changes will require fleets to make substantial changes to the vehicles they buy and maintain. Davis said that capital planning is going to be essential for not only vehicles but also service infrastructure and fueling/charging.
He expects the cost of tandem sleepers to be 26% higher in 2026 than it was in 2021. That is a big increase in a short period of time. He adds that that cost increase does not include compliance with CARB clean idle requirements for diesel trucks. Davis predicts that by 2027, a tandem sleeper that meets all the regulatory requirements will cost upwards of $200,000. He also estimates that a battery-electric truck in 2027 will cost $275,000.
Maintaining battery-electric vehicles will require additional investment. Davis said the cost of additional tools to maintain BEVs will be $10,000 to $30,000. This will include digital multimeters, junction box connectors, and various tools and safety equipment but does not include the cost of a diagnostic software subscription. A three-day program to get technicians certified to work on BEVs will be in the $10,000 to $30,000 range.
Furthermore, you will have to decide how to charge your BEVs and what the expenses will be. Davis told the audience that the cost of a 150kW DC charger is between $50,000 and $60,000, while a 250 kW charge is about $80,000.
Davis suggested that fleets assess their truck portfolio and where possible, consider replacing current vehicles with trucks featuring current diesel technology before 2027. He also suggested fleets learn about CNG as an alternative fuel option, as CNG trucks will be cheaper than BEVs.
He concluded his presentation saying that fleets need to begin planning now for 2027 to be prepared for the new cost realties.