At the beginning of 2024, I shared my thoughts on where I felt the industry was headed. Now that we’re a little more than halfway through 2025, I wanted to reflect on where we’ve been this year and where I think we’re headed as we approach 2026.
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I was initially a tad conflicted on what to expect coming into 2025. The conservative side of me said to plan for a flat year that reflected 2024 from a business standpoint with the hope (never a good strategy) that the truck leasing business would grow in Q3 and Q4.
2024 was a challenging year. In 2022 and 2023, our industry experienced unparalleled growth—due in large part to an unprecedented influx of capital into the market. Demand, which had dried up during the initial months of COVID, catapulted overnight and we suddenly went from downsizing fleets and an equally crashing used vehicle market to strategizing with OEMs for as many trucks as they could produce. These supply and demand economics resulted in above average financial results for the truck leasing inventory.
Well, as fast as that rocket ship went up, it went right back down. In 2024, rental demand dropped, used truck values plummeted, and new truck orders all but disappeared. We all needed to downsize our fleets to weather the storm that had hit overnight. So, the industry pulled back on new truck orders and looked for creative ways to improve fleet utilization, and over the past 20 months or so, that’s the world we’ve been living in.
Due in part to the business community’s optimism toward the incoming administration, 2025 started with a bang on the leasing side, though rental and used truck values still trailed. For the first few months of the year, that seemed to play out—until tariffs started making headlines. I’m not going to get into a political debate on the pros/cons of tariffs but one can’t argue that they’ve become a speed bump to the early momentum we were experiencing. However, we’re finally starting to feel that there may be some pent-up demand building, so once the market starts to normalize, we can start building up again.
All of this said, much of what has occurred speaks to the value of leasing. The flexibility NationaLease has given our customers over these turbulent few years has allowed them to maximize their fleet efficiency through our ability to procure and finance trucks—as well as parts—during supply chain constraints and rampant inflation. Our rental fleets grant our customers the flexibility to scale up and down their private fleets as they need to. We have the unique ability to match up over 1,000 family-run locations with 100,000 trucks and 85,000 trailers, letting our customers focus on their core business and deliver their products in the most efficient way possible. We have the size and scope to procure trucks when production is tight and combine that with the highest levels of service only a family-run business can provide. This is the true value of full-service truck leasing.
So, how does this year finish? I think it’s going to be much like what we are seeing today. The holiday season will tell a lot about where we’re headed but a conservative strategy will be prudent as we look for the markets to gain some confidence as to what is coming next. NationaLease is ready for whatever comes—talk to us today to learn how we can support your business in 2025 and beyond.
